For over 30 years, Senzel Schaefer consistently voted for Democratic candidates in every election. This year, however, she plans to break ranks. The Israel-Hamas conflict has become a top priority for Muslim Americans voters like Schaefer.
Dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s approach to the conflict, Schaefer, an Afghan American tech executive in Northern Virginia, intends to vote for a third-party candidate.
Schaefer’s decision reflects a broader trend. The ongoing Gaza war, now in its 10th month, has both unified and divided a traditionally Democratic voting bloc of over 3.5 million Muslim Americans.
Most Muslim voters prioritize the war as their most important issue, yet they remain divided over candidate support. Many are exploring third-party options due to dissatisfaction with the major party nominees’ pro-Israel stance.
A survey conducted by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) from August 25-29 revealed that Vice President Kamala Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each received about 29% support. Republican nominee Donald Trump garnered roughly 11%, while two other third-party candidates attracted single-digit support. Over 16% of respondents remained undecided.
These findings highlight how the Gaza war has weakened Muslim support for Democrats. In 2020, Biden secured 65% of Muslim votes. This year, however, that support has dwindled, with over 700,000 Democratic primary voters, many of them Muslims in swing states, opting not to vote for Biden.
These so-called uncommitted voters appear largely undecided, leaning toward third-party candidates or remaining undecided.
The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) identified these voters as “swing Muslim voters” in a July survey. These voters can be won over with policies that address their concerns about the Gaza conflict.
Saher Selod, ISPU’s director of research, believes any candidate committed to shifting the Gaza approach will influence Muslim voters. Achieving a cease-fire is key to swaying these voters’ decisions.
With the election less than three months away, the final decision of these “swing Muslim voters” remains uncertain. Harris, seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden, holds a slight edge among Muslim voters.
However, activists are pushing for more concrete actions, including a cease-fire and an arms embargo on Israel. Roman Fritz, an uncommitted delegate from Wisconsin, expressed skepticism, stating Harris will struggle to gain necessary votes. Without a cease-fire and arms embargo, he believes Harris’s chances of winning are slim.
Harris opposes an arms embargo but supports a deal for a cease-fire and hostage release. A spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign confirmed Harris’s support for current deals for a permanent Gaza cease-fire.
Harris also supports the release of hostages as part of these ongoing negotiations. Recently, the Harris campaign intensified its outreach to the Muslim community to gain more support.
Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez met with Arab and Jewish leaders in Michigan last week to discuss these issues.
The spokesperson for Donald trump electoral campaign stated Harris “will continue meeting with leaders from Palestinian, Muslim, Israeli, and Jewish communities” as she has throughout her vice presidency.
In contrast, Trump’s engagement with the Muslim community seems more limited. Earlier this year, a former Trump administration official and a Trump son-in-law met with Arab leaders in Michigan.
However, spokespeople for the Trump-Vance campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Kamala Harris voters
Arif Khan, an IT program manager in Northern Virginia, sees the presidential election as a “lesser-of-two-evils choice.”
The Gaza conflict heightened his political engagement, motivating him to attend pro-Palestinian rallies with his teenage sons. He mentioned he had never been so involved in different kinds of protests before.
Khan seeks a candidate willing to pressure Israel to end what he calls “genocide,” an accusation Israel denies.
Without a candidate meeting his criteria, Khan plans to vote for Harris in November. He views her as “less radical” than Biden in her support of Israel and more open to a resolution than Trump. Khan believes Kamala Harris would support a more balanced approach.
Donald Trump voters
Some see little difference between Harris and Trump on Israel. Sami Khan, a restaurateur in the Washington area, views the Gaza war as “the biggest issue” for Muslim Americans voters. However, he expects no significant change in U.S. policy regardless of who wins the election.
“We don’t really have many choices here,” said Khan, who is not related to Arif Khan. “The government will likely continue its current policy.”
Given the unlikely change in U.S. policy on Israel, Khan plans to vote for Trump. He praises Trump’s management of the economy during his first term.
“The economy is very important,” Khan said. “If Trump wins, he’s definitely good for the economy.”
Khan, who owns over a dozen restaurants in the region, represents about one-third of Republican-leaning Muslim voters. Although not all support Trump, polls suggest his appeal among them is growing.
Muslim Americans are a diverse group. While Gaza is a top concern, their priorities also include the economy, jobs, immigration, and the environment.
“Trump is a businessman, and he knows how to fix the economy,” Khan said. “He offers many incentives.”
Democrat-sympathetic Republican
Other Muslim Americans who lean Republican agree with the former president’s claim that his tenure made the world calmer and more prosperous. Fact-checkers have questioned this assertion.
Dr. Rashid Chotani from Great Falls, Virginia, noted, “Things were improving, but suddenly everything is collapsing.” Chotani, previously a Republican voter who supported Democrats in recent elections, is switching back to the Republican side.
Chotani, a prominent Pakistani American doctor, had already grown disillusioned with the party’s leftward shift. Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict was the final straw for him.
“I expected him to end this catastrophe,” Chotani said. “He keeps promising action on Palestine, but nothing has changed.”
Chotani plans to vote for Trump. However, many others remain undecided. It is uncertain whether either campaign can win them over.
A cease-fire could influence some voters toward Harris, according to delegates and experts. The ISPU survey showed that 91% of “swing Muslim voters” would support a pro-cease-fire candidate.
Yet, even with a cease-fire, many might choose third-party candidates or abstain from voting, potentially splitting the Muslim vote.
Some worry this could weaken the political influence of the 3.5 million-strong Muslim community. With votes divided, their ability to affect elections may decrease.
Despite this, Chotani sees a positive side. “United, we could make a bigger impact,” Chotani said. “This is part of democracy’s evolution. We may diverge, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing.”
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